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<?xml-stylesheet type="text/xsl" href="http://nerve.com/CS/utility/FeedStylesheets/rss.xsl" media="screen"?><rss version="2.0" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/" xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"><channel><title>The Screengrab : hal holbrook</title><link>http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/hal+holbrook/default.aspx</link><description>Tags: hal holbrook</description><dc:language>en</dc:language><generator>CommunityServer 2007.1 (Build: 20910.1126)</generator><item><title>SXSW 2009 Awards Announced</title><link>http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/2009/03/18/sxsw-2009-awards-announced.aspx</link><pubDate>Wed, 18 Mar 2009 14:00:00 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">bd485f5c-a45b-491f-8e52-c79e7f680fc3:187241</guid><dc:creator>Scott Von Doviak</dc:creator><slash:comments>1</slash:comments><wfw:commentRss xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/">http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=187241</wfw:commentRss><comments>http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/2009/03/18/sxsw-2009-awards-announced.aspx#comments</comments><description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;font size="2"&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/2009/03/holbrook.jpg"&gt;&lt;img src="http://www.nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/2009/03/holbrook.jpg" border="0" alt="" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/font&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;font size="2"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The jury and audience awards for the 2009 SXSW Film Festival were announced last night at the Austin Convention Center. &lt;em&gt;Made in China&lt;/em&gt; won the Jury Award for Best Narrative Feature as well as the special Chicken &amp;amp; Egg Emergent Women Award. The Audience Award for Best Narrative Feature went to &lt;em&gt;That Evening Sun&lt;/em&gt;, which also picked up a Special Jury Award for Best Ensemble Cast (including Hal Holbrook, Mia Wasikowska, Ray McKinnon, Walton Goggins and Carrie Preston). &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The rest of the winners: &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Jury Award for Best Documentary Feature:&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;em&gt;45365&lt;/em&gt; (Honorable Mention: &lt;em&gt;The Way We Get By&lt;/em&gt;)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Audience Award for Best Documentary Feature:&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;em&gt;MINE&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Audience Award for Emerging Visions:&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;em&gt;Motherland&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;SXSW &amp;amp; AIGA Austin Movie Poster Award:&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;em&gt;The Dungeon Master&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;SXSW Wholpin Short Film Award:&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;em&gt;Sister Wife&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Reel Shorts Jury Award:&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;em&gt;Thompson&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Animated Shorts Jury Award:&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;em&gt;Shaman &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Experimental Shorts Jury Award:&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;em&gt;Cattle Call&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Music Video Jury Award:&lt;/strong&gt; &amp;quot;Jerk It,&amp;quot; Thunderheist&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Texas High School Competition:&lt;/strong&gt; &lt;em&gt;Performance Evaluation&lt;/em&gt; &lt;/font&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="http://nerve.com/CS/aggbug.aspx?PostID=187241" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/sxsw/default.aspx">sxsw</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/scott+von+doviak/default.aspx">scott von doviak</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/hal+holbrook/default.aspx">hal holbrook</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/sxsw+2009/default.aspx">sxsw 2009</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/the+way+we+get+by/default.aspx">the way we get by</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/shaman/default.aspx">shaman</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/45365/default.aspx">45365</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/walton+goggins/default.aspx">walton goggins</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/cattle+call/default.aspx">cattle call</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/the+dungeon+master/default.aspx">the dungeon master</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/mine/default.aspx">mine</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/motherland/default.aspx">motherland</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/sister+wife/default.aspx">sister wife</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/thompson/default.aspx">thompson</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/made+in+china/default.aspx">made in china</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/ray+mckinnon/default.aspx">ray mckinnon</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/that+evening+sun/default.aspx">that evening sun</category></item><item><title>Summer of '78: "Capricorn One"</title><link>http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/2008/05/29/summer-of-78-quot-capricorn-one-quot.aspx</link><pubDate>Thu, 29 May 2008 16:00:00 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">bd485f5c-a45b-491f-8e52-c79e7f680fc3:97198</guid><dc:creator>Scott Von Doviak</dc:creator><slash:comments>1</slash:comments><wfw:commentRss xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/">http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=97198</wfw:commentRss><comments>http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/2008/05/29/summer-of-78-quot-capricorn-one-quot.aspx#comments</comments><description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;font size="2"&gt;&lt;i&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/2008/05/23-End%20of%20Month/capricorn.jpg"&gt;&lt;img src="http://www.nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/2008/05/23-End%20of%20Month/capricorn.jpg" align="right" border="0" alt="" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;
 Each Thursday this summer we’ll hop in the Screengrab time machine and jump back thirty years to see what was new and exciting at the neighborhood moviehouse this week in…The Summer of ’78!
&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;
Capricorn One 
&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;
Release Date:&lt;/b&gt; June 2, 1978
&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;
Cast:&lt;/b&gt;  Elliott Gould, James Brolin, Brenda Vaccaro, Hal Holbrook, Sam Waterston, Karen Black, Telly Savalas, OJ Simpson
&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;
The Buzz:&lt;/b&gt; A conspiracy thriller with a dash of sci-fi intrigue.
&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;
Keywords: &lt;/b&gt;NASA, Astronaut, Fraud, Chase, Reporter, Scorpion, Helicopter Crash
&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;
The Plot:&lt;/b&gt; Three astronauts (Brolin, Waterston and The Juice) are onboard their spacecraft ready to launch the first manned mission to mars when a NASA suit rushes them out of the capsule and onto a waiting plane.  When they arrive in Los Angeles and meet with NASA chief James Kelloway (Holbrook), they learn that the ship’s cheaply made life support system was deemed unsafe, and that their ship has left for Mars without them.  Appealing to their patriotism – and when that fails, not-so-subtly threatening the lives of their families – Kelloway coerces them into participating in a hoax.  The Mars landing is faked on a Hollywood soundstage, as is their return to Earth.  (You can imagine how this would be a scandal on par with Milli Vanilli lip-synching on the Grammies.)  When the ship splashes down, Kelloway announces that the heat shields have failed and all aboard have disintegrated.  Figuring that they’ve been duped, the astronauts escape and split up, heading in three different directions.  At this point, you will guess correctly that Brolin will be the lone survivor.  (The black astronaut is, of course, the first to die, but since it’s OJ, it’s hard to get too worked up over it.)  Meanwhile, reporter Robert Caulfield (Elliott Gould, doing a broader take on his Philip Marlowe from &lt;i&gt;The Long Goodbye&lt;/i&gt;) is sniffing around the story and figuring that something isn’t quite right.  
&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;
The Test of Time:&lt;/b&gt; I’m actually a little surprised there hasn’t been a remake of &lt;i&gt;Capricorn One &lt;/i&gt;yet, and not surprised at all that a Google search of “capricorn one remake” turns up dozens of rumor sites.  The urban legend that the moon landing was faked persists to this day (see the recent NASA documentary&lt;i&gt; In the Shadow of the Moon&lt;/i&gt;, in which exasperated lunar module pilot Charlie Duke points out, “We went to the moon nine times.  Why would we fake it &lt;i&gt;nine&lt;/i&gt; times?”), and Mars is back in the headlines this very week.  Granted, the most recent cycle of Mars movies (&lt;i&gt;Red Planet&lt;/i&gt;, &lt;i&gt;Mission to Mars&lt;/i&gt;, &lt;i&gt;Ghosts of Mars&lt;/i&gt;) met with little support from critics or the box office, but &lt;i&gt;Capricorn&lt;/i&gt; has a solid premise, even if the execution is half-baked.  In the hands of sci-fi hack Peter Hyams (&lt;i&gt;Outland&lt;/i&gt;, &lt;i&gt;2010&lt;/i&gt;), it’s a lumpy thriller with no real momentum and little suspense.  Also, the ending SUCKS - it&amp;#39;s one of those &amp;#39;70s freeze-frames that thinks its so profound and ambiguous, when really it&amp;#39;s just denying us a well-deserved comeuppance for no good reason.&amp;nbsp; It&amp;#39;s not like they&amp;#39;d be messing with a classic, so I can easily picture a more sophisticated &lt;i&gt;Capricorn One&lt;/i&gt;, in terms of both conspiracy and technology, from, say, Steven Soderbergh.  Yes, I can see it now: George Clooney, Will Smith and Steve Carrell as the astronauts.  Call me, Stevie! We&amp;#39;ll do lunch!
&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;
Quotable Quote:&lt;/b&gt; “You know, when Apollo 17 landed on the moon, people were calling up the networks and bitching because reruns of&lt;i&gt; I Love Lucy&lt;/i&gt; were cancelled. Reruns, for Christ&amp;#39;s sake! I could understand if it was the new Lucy show. After all, what&amp;#39;s a walk on the moon? But &lt;i&gt;reruns&lt;/i&gt;?”
&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
2008 Equivalent:&lt;/b&gt; Let’s see…conspiracies, outer space, an investigator who stumbles onto something big…it’s gotta be &lt;i&gt;The X-Files: I Want to Believe&lt;/i&gt;.
&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
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&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;
Previously on &amp;quot;Summer of &amp;#39;78&amp;quot;: &lt;a href="http://www.nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/2008/05/22/summer-of-78-thank-god-it-s-friday.aspx" target="_blank"&gt;&lt;i&gt;Thank God It&amp;#39;s Friday&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/b&gt;
&lt;/font&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="http://nerve.com/CS/aggbug.aspx?PostID=97198" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/will+smith/default.aspx">will smith</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/george+clooney/default.aspx">george clooney</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/elliott+gould/default.aspx">elliott gould</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/scott+von+doviak/default.aspx">scott von doviak</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/karen+black/default.aspx">karen black</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/steven+soderbergh/default.aspx">steven soderbergh</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/telly+savalas/default.aspx">telly savalas</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/hal+holbrook/default.aspx">hal holbrook</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/steve+carrell/default.aspx">steve carrell</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/in+the+shadow+of+the+moon/default.aspx">in the shadow of the moon</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/peter+hyams/default.aspx">peter hyams</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/2010/default.aspx">2010</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/the+long+goodbye/default.aspx">the long goodbye</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/mission+to+mars/default.aspx">mission to mars</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/summer+of+_2700_78/default.aspx">summer of '78</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/ghosts+of+mars/default.aspx">ghosts of mars</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/outland/default.aspx">outland</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/i+love+lucy/default.aspx">i love lucy</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/brenda+vaccaro/default.aspx">brenda vaccaro</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/oj+simpson/default.aspx">oj simpson</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/james+brolin/default.aspx">james brolin</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/sam+waterston/default.aspx">sam waterston</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/capricorn+one/default.aspx">capricorn one</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/red+planet/default.aspx">red planet</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/the+x-files/default.aspx">the x-files</category></item><item><title>Screengrab Bets the Oscars:  Paul's Picks</title><link>http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/2008/02/14/screengrab-bets-the-oscars-paul-s-picks.aspx</link><pubDate>Thu, 14 Feb 2008 17:00:00 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">bd485f5c-a45b-491f-8e52-c79e7f680fc3:71673</guid><dc:creator>Paul Clark</dc:creator><slash:comments>0</slash:comments><wfw:commentRss xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/">http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=71673</wfw:commentRss><comments>http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/2008/02/14/screengrab-bets-the-oscars-paul-s-picks.aspx#comments</comments><description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;font size="2"&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/oscar.jpg"&gt;&lt;img src="http://www.nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/oscar.jpg" align="right" border="0" alt="" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/font&gt;&lt;font size="2"&gt;All right, Screengrab regulars. You&amp;#39;ve no doubt taken a gander at the Oscar predictions from &lt;a href="http://www.nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/2008/02/12/screengrab-bets-the-oscars-leonard-s-picks.aspx"&gt;Leonard Pierce&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href="http://www.nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/2008/02/13/screengrab-bets-the-oscars-scott-s-picks.aspx"&gt;Scott Von Doviak&lt;/a&gt;, which if nothing else have demonstrated that Screengrab&amp;#39;s sense of humor remains intact. Now have a gander at — well, I was going to say the REAL predictions, but since you&amp;#39;ve already seen my &lt;a href="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/2008/01/21/paul-clark-predicts-the-oscar-nominees.aspx"&gt;nomination predictions&lt;/a&gt;, I can&amp;#39;t in good conscience make such a grandiose claim. But Leonard has sent out a call, and I have no choice but to answer it. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Here goes nothing. . . &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:&lt;/b&gt; Amy Ryan has been racking up critics&amp;#39; awards, but I think Hollywood insiders could be turned off by her unpleasant character. Saoirse Ronan might have had a shot with a bigger &lt;i&gt;Atonement&lt;/i&gt; groundswell, but I don&amp;#39;t see it happening now. Ruby Dee, SAG Award or no, should be happy just to be nominated. This brings us to Cate Blanchett as not-quite-Dylan, and Tilda Swinton in &lt;i&gt;Michael Clayton&lt;/i&gt;. This is Blanchett&amp;#39;s to lose. . . or would be had she not won just three years ago. The performance — more than a stunt — is might impressive, but I think Swinton sneaks in for the upset here. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:&lt;/b&gt; Bardem&amp;#39;s still the one to beat here, friend-o. If anyone beats him, it&amp;#39;ll be Grand Old Actor Hal Holbrook, although his chances would&amp;#39;ve been better had &lt;i&gt;Into the Wild&lt;/i&gt; gotten a Best Picture nomination. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;BEST ACTRESS:&lt;/b&gt; Leonard and Scott are all about Christie, but I think this is a closer race than they&amp;#39;re predicting. &lt;i&gt;Juno&lt;/i&gt; lives and dies by Ellen Page&amp;#39;s performance, but the voters might find her too young to get behind. I&amp;#39;m going out on a limb and predicting Marion Cotillard as Edith Piaf in &lt;i&gt;La Vie en Rose&lt;/i&gt;, though any of these three could take home the Oscar. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;BEST ACTOR:&lt;/b&gt; You know, had &lt;i&gt;Sweeney Todd&lt;/i&gt; made any money at the box office, this could have been Johnny Depp&amp;#39;s year. But as it is, Daniel Day-Lewis is untouchable, and anyone who denies it is a bastard from a basket. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:&lt;/b&gt; Much as I&amp;#39;d love to see a &lt;i&gt;Ratatouille&lt;/i&gt; upset, this race comes down the Hollywood veteran vs. the feisty newcomer. Good as the &lt;i&gt;Michael Clayton&lt;/i&gt; screenplay is, this award almost always goes to the most show-offy screenplay, which this year is almost certainly &lt;i&gt;Juno&lt;/i&gt;. Add in a Hollywood-friendly backstory and Diablo Cody&amp;#39;s sudden ubiquity, and you&amp;#39;ve got an Oscar waiting to happen. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:&lt;/b&gt; &lt;i&gt;There Will Be Blood&lt;/i&gt; is a masterpiece, but it&amp;#39;s more of a directorial and acting showcase than a triumph of screenwriting. &lt;i&gt;Atonement&lt;/i&gt; has all the ingredients of an Oscar-bait literary adaptation, but will have to make do with a few technical awards. Which means &lt;i&gt;No Country for Old Men&lt;/i&gt; will bring the Coen brothers their second Oscar to date — or third, should the film win Best Editing. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;BEST DIRECTOR:&lt;/b&gt; Of the nominated directors, the Coens are the Oscar veterans, and are well-liked in the industry. How else to explain an out-of-nowhere screenplay nomination for &lt;i&gt;O Brother, Where Art Thou?&lt;/i&gt; back in the day. If anyone has a shot, it&amp;#39;s Paul Thomas Anderson, but don&amp;#39;t bet on it. Even if there&amp;#39;s an upset for Best Picture, when it comes to this category, you can&amp;#39;t stop what&amp;#39;s coming. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;BEST PICTURE:&lt;/b&gt; &lt;i&gt;No Country&lt;/i&gt; is the favorite here, partly because nobody can seem to agree on what might upset it. I&amp;#39;m still predicting &lt;i&gt;No Country&lt;/i&gt; to take this prize, but allow me to float my theory for a possible spoiler: &lt;i&gt;Michael Clayton&lt;/i&gt;. Think about it — it&amp;#39;s both a thriller and a serious drama, starring an immensely popular movie star and a supporting cast full of familiar and talented character actors. The film contains a lot of appeal for the actor-heavy voting body, especially when you consider that it earned three acting nominations this year while no other film received more than one. If the voting members of the Academy choose to forego the darkness of &lt;i&gt;No Country&lt;/i&gt; for something more Hollywood, count on this (more so than &lt;i&gt;Juno&lt;/i&gt;, which skews too young and feels too lightweight to be Best Picture material) to be their alternative of choice. Could be worse — at least it&amp;#39;s not &lt;i&gt;Crash&lt;/i&gt;.&lt;/font&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;img src="http://nerve.com/CS/aggbug.aspx?PostID=71673" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/leonard+pierce/default.aspx">leonard pierce</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/oscars/default.aspx">oscars</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/paul+clark/default.aspx">paul clark</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/michael+clayton/default.aspx">michael clayton</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/daniel+day-lewis/default.aspx">daniel day-lewis</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/there+will+be+blood/default.aspx">there will be blood</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/johnny+depp/default.aspx">johnny depp</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/sweeney+todd/default.aspx">sweeney todd</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/juno/default.aspx">juno</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/diablo+cody/default.aspx">diablo cody</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/no+country+for+old+men/default.aspx">no country for old men</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/javier+bardem/default.aspx">javier bardem</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/atonement/default.aspx">atonement</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/into+the+wild/default.aspx">into the wild</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/cate+blanchett/default.aspx">cate blanchett</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/crash/default.aspx">crash</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/scott+von+doviak/default.aspx">scott von doviak</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/ellen+page/default.aspx">ellen page</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/amy+ryan/default.aspx">amy ryan</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/rataouille/default.aspx">rataouille</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/tilda+swinton/default.aspx">tilda swinton</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/julie+christie/default.aspx">julie christie</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/marion+cotillard/default.aspx">marion cotillard</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/hal+holbrook/default.aspx">hal holbrook</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/saoirse+ronan/default.aspx">saoirse ronan</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/ruby+dee/default.aspx">ruby dee</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/la+vie+en+rose/default.aspx">la vie en rose</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/edith+piaf/default.aspx">edith piaf</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/roderick+jaynes/default.aspx">roderick jaynes</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/screengrab+bets+the+oscars/default.aspx">screengrab bets the oscars</category></item><item><title>Screengrab Bets The Oscars:  Leonard's Picks</title><link>http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/2008/02/12/screengrab-bets-the-oscars-leonard-s-picks.aspx</link><pubDate>Tue, 12 Feb 2008 15:30:00 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">bd485f5c-a45b-491f-8e52-c79e7f680fc3:70918</guid><dc:creator>Leonard Pierce</dc:creator><slash:comments>6</slash:comments><wfw:commentRss xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/">http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=70918</wfw:commentRss><comments>http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/2008/02/12/screengrab-bets-the-oscars-leonard-s-picks.aspx#comments</comments><description>&lt;a href="http://www.nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/2008/02/08-15/oscar.jpg"&gt;&lt;img src="http://www.nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/2008/02/08-15/oscar.jpg" align="right" border="0" alt="" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;With the 80th annual Academy Awards less than two weeks away, and with the WGA strike apparently near its end (assuring that there actually will be an Oscar ceremony, and not just a handful of star-struck entertainment journalists trying to figure out who the TelePrompTer works), it&amp;#39;s time for us here at the Screengrab to suck it up. It&amp;#39;s time for us to do what every other film writer in the world, self-respecting or otherwise, is doing, and lay down our picks for the big to-do. Since I&amp;#39;ve always had a knack for making a jackass out of myself on the internet, I&amp;#39;ll be the first: under the cut, you&amp;#39;ll find my picks for who &lt;i&gt;deserves&lt;/i&gt; to take home a statuette come Oscar night in eigh different categories, and who&amp;#39;s &lt;i&gt;going&lt;/i&gt; to walk away with the gold, regardless of merit. Over the next thirteen days, I&amp;#39;m hoping my Screengrab colleagues will join me in this endeavor, and then, come March, at least one of us can strut around talking about how smart we are.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: &amp;nbsp;&lt;/b&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;There&amp;#39;s a fine crowd of candidates this time around, and it&amp;#39;s hard to pick a winner — there&amp;#39;s no obvious failings just as there&amp;#39;s no obvious standouts. All told, Cate Blanchett should win for her turn as Dylan in &lt;i&gt;I&amp;#39;m Not There&lt;/i&gt;, but I&amp;#39;m predicting it will actually end up in the hands of Amy Ryan for the surprising &lt;i&gt;Gone Baby Gone&lt;/i&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;If, as I&amp;#39;m predicting, the Coen Brothers are shut out again this year, that means even more that Javier Bardem should win for his performance as Anton Chigurh in &lt;i&gt;No Country for Old Men. &lt;/i&gt;However, given his spate of terrific roles towards the end of the year, I&amp;#39;m predicting it will go to Philip Seymour Hoffman for &lt;i&gt;Charlie Wilson&amp;#39;s War&lt;/i&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;BEST ACTRESS:&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Ellen Page surely deserves recognition for the breakout performance she delivered in &lt;i&gt;Juno&lt;/i&gt;, and there&amp;#39;s a slight possibility she&amp;#39;ll get it. However, I think the Academy will go the other direction — since Hal Holbrook won&amp;#39;t be getting an old-timer&amp;#39;s award, Julie Christie will take home the gold for the little-seen &lt;i&gt;Away from Her&lt;/i&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;BEST ACTOR:&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Although there&amp;#39;s an off chance that George Clooney will take home the gold, I&amp;#39;m picking Daniel Day-Lewis&amp;#39; colossal performance in &lt;i&gt;There Will Be Blood&lt;/i&gt; as both my should-win and will-win. Past performance and academy voting patterns be damned: it&amp;#39;s a towering, masterful job of acting that carries the entire movie.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: &amp;nbsp;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Traditionally, the screenplay categories are the thanks-for-playing awards for the year&amp;#39;s best movies, but which for whatever reason aren&amp;#39;t going to get one of the big awards. As such, it&amp;#39;s a dead heat between &lt;i&gt;No Country for Old Men &lt;/i&gt;and &lt;i&gt;There Will Be Blood&lt;/i&gt;, and my money&amp;#39;s on Paul Thomas Anderson this year.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: &amp;nbsp;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;If ever there are a sold-gold, lead-pipe lock in the history of solid-gold, lead-pipe locks, it&amp;#39;s Diablo Cody winning Oscar gold this year for &lt;i&gt;Juno&lt;/i&gt;. Bet the farm on it.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;BEST DIRECTOR: &amp;nbsp;&lt;/b&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;For filmmakers as talented and distinctive as the Coen Brothers never to have won an Oscar is a crime, but this isn&amp;#39;t their &lt;i&gt;Departed&lt;/i&gt; year. They&amp;#39;ll be shut out again, though, leaving open the question of who gets it. P.T. Anderson seems obvious, but I&amp;#39;m gonna say this is a divisive year and Tony Gilroy takes it for &lt;i&gt;Michael Clayton&lt;/i&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;BEST PICTURE:&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;If &lt;i&gt;Juno &lt;/i&gt;wins, the very balance of nature will be forever thrown askew. &lt;i&gt;No Country for Old Men&lt;/i&gt; and &lt;i&gt;There Will Be Blood&lt;/i&gt; are the most deserving, but are perceived as overly nihilistic and grim. &lt;i&gt;Michael Clayton &lt;/i&gt;could be the winner by default, but I think it&amp;#39;ll go to &lt;i&gt;Atonement&lt;/i&gt;, the very definition of an Academy prestige picture. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src="http://nerve.com/CS/aggbug.aspx?PostID=70918" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/leonard+pierce/default.aspx">leonard pierce</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/philip+seymour+hoffman/default.aspx">philip seymour hoffman</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/michael+clayton/default.aspx">michael clayton</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/coen+brothers/default.aspx">coen brothers</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/daniel+day-lewis/default.aspx">daniel day-lewis</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/there+will+be+blood/default.aspx">there will be blood</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/paul+thomas+anderson/default.aspx">paul thomas anderson</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/gone+baby+gone/default.aspx">gone baby gone</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/the+departed/default.aspx">the departed</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/charlie+wilson_2700_s+war/default.aspx">charlie wilson's war</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/juno/default.aspx">juno</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/diablo+cody/default.aspx">diablo cody</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/tony+gilroy/default.aspx">tony gilroy</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/no+country+for+old+men/default.aspx">no country for old men</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/george+clooney/default.aspx">george clooney</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/javier+bardem/default.aspx">javier bardem</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/atonement/default.aspx">atonement</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/bob+dylan/default.aspx">bob dylan</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/cate+blanchett/default.aspx">cate blanchett</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/ellen+page/default.aspx">ellen page</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/away+from+her/default.aspx">away from her</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/amy+ryan/default.aspx">amy ryan</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/julie+christie/default.aspx">julie christie</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/hal+holbrook/default.aspx">hal holbrook</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/academy+awards/default.aspx">academy awards</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/p.+t.+anderson/default.aspx">p. t. anderson</category><category domain="http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/tags/screengrab+bets+the+oscars/default.aspx">screengrab bets the oscars</category></item><item><title>Paul Clark Predicts the Oscar Nominees</title><link>http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/2008/01/21/paul-clark-predicts-the-oscar-nominees.aspx</link><pubDate>Mon, 21 Jan 2008 19:00:00 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">bd485f5c-a45b-491f-8e52-c79e7f680fc3:65348</guid><dc:creator>Paul Clark</dc:creator><slash:comments>4</slash:comments><wfw:commentRss xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/">http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=65348</wfw:commentRss><comments>http://nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/archive/2008/01/21/paul-clark-predicts-the-oscar-nominees.aspx#comments</comments><description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;font size="2"&gt;&lt;i&gt;&amp;quot;Nobody knows anything.&amp;quot;&lt;/i&gt; Screenwriter William Goldman immortalized that phrase a few decades ago, and it&amp;#39;s as true this Oscar season as it&amp;#39;s always been. Perhaps even more so — not only are many Oscar races still wide-open, but the status of the ceremony itself is up in the air. But for now the show is still happening, which means the nominations are set to be announced tomorrow morning. Here are my hasty, shot-in-the-dark predictions in the top six categories: &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;Best Picture:&lt;a href="http://www.nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/no_country_for_old_men.poster.jpg"&gt;&lt;img src="http://www.nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/no_country_for_old_men.poster.jpg" align="right" border="0" alt="" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;i&gt;The Diving Bell and the Butterfly&lt;br /&gt;Into the Wild&lt;br /&gt;Juno&lt;br /&gt;Michael Clayton&lt;br /&gt;No Country for Old Men&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;I think we can all agree that &lt;i&gt;No Country&lt;/i&gt; is in, right? Beyond that, it&amp;#39;s something of a crap shoot. &lt;i&gt;Michael Clayton&lt;/i&gt; is the kind of classy star vehicle the Academy usually responds to, and audience favorite &lt;i&gt;Juno&lt;/i&gt; has become too big a word of mouth phenomenon to ignore. At one point, &lt;i&gt;Atonement&lt;/i&gt; was looking like a front-runner for the win, but its Oscar buzz has subsided. On the other side of the coin, &lt;i&gt;There Will Be Blood&lt;/i&gt; may be too bleak for the voters to embrace — it would have a better chance were it the year&amp;#39;s undisputed critical champ, but with &lt;i&gt;No Country&lt;/i&gt; in the mix, PTA&amp;#39;s masterpiece could be shut out here. Instead, I&amp;#39;m predicting &lt;i&gt;The Diving Bell and the Butterfly&lt;/i&gt;, an acclaimed true-life story that&amp;#39;s only gaining momentum, and &lt;i&gt;Into the Wild&lt;/i&gt;, the year&amp;#39;s most Oscar-baity film directed by a respected actor, which is something that tends to go over well with the actor-filled Academy membership. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;Best Actor:&lt;a href="http://www.nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/Daniel-Day-Lewis-ThereW.jpg"&gt;&lt;img src="http://www.nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/Daniel-Day-Lewis-ThereW.jpg" align="right" border="0" alt="" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;George Clooney, &lt;i&gt;Michael Clayton&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Daniel Day-Lewis, &lt;i&gt;There Will Be Blood&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Johnny Depp, &lt;i&gt;Sweeney Todd&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Emile Hirsch, &lt;i&gt;Into the Wild&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Viggo Mortensen, &lt;i&gt;Eastern Promises&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Even if the Academy decides to overlook &lt;i&gt;There Will Be Blood&lt;/i&gt;, they won&amp;#39;t be able to deny the awesomeness of Day-Lewis&amp;#39; blazing performance as Plainview. Likewise, Clooney and Depp have recently become Academy favorites, and I dare say that had &lt;i&gt;Sweeney Todd&lt;/i&gt; done more business Depp would&amp;#39;ve been the one to beat here. Hirsch is a bit iffier here given his age, but he carries &lt;em&gt;Into the Wild &lt;/em&gt;on his capable shoulde&lt;em&gt;rs&lt;/em&gt;, and if the film gets nominated I&amp;#39;m guessing he will be too. With the recent groundswell for &lt;i&gt;The Diving Bell and the Butterfly&lt;/i&gt;, I think Matthieu Amalric should be seen as a contender here, although not nearly as much as if he was an American star. Instead, I&amp;#39;m going with Mortensen — &lt;i&gt;Eastern Promises&lt;/i&gt; didn&amp;#39;t exactly set the world on fire, but his performance was the highlight, and I think voters will take the opportunity to honor him not only for this role but also for his overlooked turns in &lt;i&gt;A History of Violence&lt;/i&gt; and the &lt;i&gt;Lord of the Rings&lt;/i&gt; trilogy. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;Best Actress:&lt;a href="http://www.nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/away-from-her-julie-christie-200.jpg"&gt;&lt;img src="http://www.nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/away-from-her-julie-christie-200.jpg" align="right" border="0" alt="" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Amy Adams, &lt;i&gt;Enchanted&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Julie Christie, &lt;i&gt;Away From Her&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Marion Cotillard, &lt;i&gt;La Vie en Rose&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Angelina Jolie, &lt;i&gt;A Mighty Heart&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Ellen Page, &lt;i&gt;Juno&lt;/i&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Throughout this awards season, three names kept popping up in this rare — Christie, Cotillard, and Page. So it&amp;#39;s pretty safe to assume they&amp;#39;ll make it in. That leaves us two spots in a relatively weak year for buzzed-about performances (sadly, &lt;i&gt;Black Book&lt;/i&gt;&amp;#39;s Carice Van Houten has no traction whatsoever). With very little competition, Jolie should make the cut — the film didn&amp;#39;t make much of a dent, but her stardom has kept her in the race. The final spot is anyone&amp;#39;s guess. High-profile star turns (Jodie Foster in &lt;i&gt;The Brave One&lt;/i&gt;, Cate Blanchett in &lt;i&gt;Elizabeth: The Golden Age&lt;/i&gt;) have flopped at the box office, while respected performers in independent films (notably Laura Linney in &lt;i&gt;The Savages&lt;/i&gt;) have been lost in the year-end shuffle. That leaves Amy Adams in &lt;i&gt;Enchanted&lt;/i&gt;, a star-making performance by a previous nominee in a hit movie that&amp;#39;s still fresh in people&amp;#39;s minds. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;Best Director:&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/font&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/Schnabel.jpg"&gt;&lt;font size="2"&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/font&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;font size="2"&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/Schnabel.jpg"&gt;&lt;img src="http://www.nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/Schnabel.jpg" align="right" border="0" alt="" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/font&gt;&lt;font size="2"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Paul Thomas Anderson, &lt;i&gt;There Will Be Blood&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Joel and Ethan Coen, &lt;i&gt;No Country for Old Men&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Tony Gilroy, &lt;i&gt;Michael Clayton&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Sean Penn, &lt;i&gt;Into the Wild&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Julian Schnabel, &lt;i&gt;The Diving Bell and the Butterfly&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;At this point, Best Director is the Coens&amp;#39; to lose. Even if someone else takes home Best Picture, I think it&amp;#39;s still their year in this category. I also think the Directors Branch will be impressed by Sean Penn&amp;#39;s metamorphosis into serious filmmaker, as well as Schnabel&amp;#39;s unconventional, inspired filmmaking choices in &lt;i&gt;Diving Bell&lt;/i&gt;. For this year&amp;#39;s semi-obligatory non-Best Picture-nominated director, I&amp;#39;m predicting Anderson, a respected maverick whose filmmaking chops in &lt;i&gt;There Will Be Blood&lt;/i&gt; are undeniable even if the film itself is too much for some audiences. Of the two remaining Best Picture nominees, I think Gilroy has the edge over &lt;i&gt;Juno&lt;/i&gt;&amp;#39;s Jason Reitman for two reasons: (1) crowd-pleasing comedies tend to get shut out of this category, and (2) Gilroy is a veteran screenwriter makes an impressive directorial debut. But don&amp;#39;t be surprised if another &amp;quot;lone director&amp;quot; — say, Sidney Lumet for &lt;i&gt;Before the Devil Knows You&amp;#39;re Dead&lt;/i&gt;, or Tim Burton for &lt;i&gt;Sweeney Todd&lt;/i&gt; — gets the nod instead. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;Best Supporting Actor:&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/font&gt;&lt;font size="2"&gt;&lt;i&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/Bardem%20no%20country.jpg"&gt;&lt;img src="http://www.nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/Bardem%20no%20country.jpg" align="right" border="0" alt="" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/font&gt;&lt;font size="2"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Javier Bardem, &lt;i&gt;No Country for Old Men&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Philip Seymour Hoffman, &lt;i&gt;Charlie Wilson&amp;#39;s War&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Hal Holbrook, &lt;i&gt;Into the Wild&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Tommy Lee Jones, &lt;i&gt;No Country for Old Men&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Tom Wilkinson, &lt;i&gt;Michael Clayton&lt;/i&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/font&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;font size="2"&gt;In a year without Bardem, this race might have come down to Grand Old Actor Holbrook vs. veteran character actor Wilkinson. But Bardem casts a long shadow over this category, with Chigurh the creepiest villain in an Oscar-feted film since Hannibal Lecter. &lt;i&gt;Charlie Wilson&amp;#39;s War&lt;/i&gt; wasn&amp;#39;t the Oscar juggernaut that it was predicted to be, but I still think Hoffman&amp;#39;s scene-stealing turn will make it in. I think this year&amp;#39;s biggest surprise will be the absence of Casey Affleck&amp;#39;s performance in &lt;i&gt;The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford&lt;/i&gt;. Affleck&amp;#39;s the only serious competition Bardem has had among the precursor awards, but &lt;i&gt;Jesse James&lt;/i&gt; was a box-office flop and Affleck&amp;#39;s performance could give voters the willies. Max Von Sydow&amp;#39;s affecting turn in &lt;i&gt;The Diving Bell and the Butterfly&lt;/i&gt; might have had a chance here — as a means of honoring&lt;/font&gt;&lt;font size="2"&gt; one of the world&amp;#39;s most esteemed actors and, by extension, his recently-departed longtime collaborator Ingmar Bergman — except that he might not have enough screentime to be a contender. Instead, I&amp;#39;m giving the edge to Jones, an Academy favorite who came roaring back this year to give two acclaimed performances after a decade&amp;#39;s worth of commercial crap. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/font&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;font size="2"&gt;&lt;b&gt;Best Supporting Actress:&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/font&gt;&lt;font size="2"&gt;&lt;i&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/cate_blanchett%20as%20dylan.jpg"&gt;&lt;img src="http://www.nerve.com/CS/blogs/screengrab/cate_blanchett%20as%20dylan.jpg" align="right" border="0" alt="" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/font&gt;&lt;font size="2"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Cate Blanchett, &lt;i&gt;I&amp;#39;m Not There&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Catherine Keener, &lt;i&gt;Into the Wild&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Kelly MacDonald, &lt;i&gt;No Country for Old Men&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Amy Ryan, &lt;i&gt;Gone Baby Gone&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Tilda Swinton, &lt;i&gt;Michael Clayton&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Once again, three names keep popping up in this category: Blanchett, Ryan, and Swinton. I think they&amp;#39;ll all get nominated, though who will win remains to be seen (early shot-in-the-dark prediction: a Swinton upset). The other two spots are less certain. But consider that, more than any other category, the Best Supporting Actress nominees are largely composed of performers who starred opposite other Oscar nominees. In this respect, I think contenders such as Ruby Dee in &lt;i&gt;American Gangster&lt;/i&gt;, Marisa Tomei in &lt;i&gt;Before the Devil Knows You&amp;#39;re Dead&lt;/i&gt;, and especially Saoirse Ronan in &lt;i&gt;Atonement&lt;/i&gt;, are at a disadvantage here. Instead, I&amp;#39;m predicting the fourth spot to go to Catherine Keener, getting her third nomination in this category for her moving turn in &lt;i&gt;Into the Wild&lt;/i&gt;. The final slot comes down to Jennifer Garner in &lt;i&gt;Juno&lt;/i&gt; and Kelly MacDonald in &lt;i&gt;No Country for Old Men&lt;/i&gt;. Despite Garner&amp;#39;s greater name recognition, I&amp;#39;m giving the edge to MacDonald, both for No Country&amp;#39;s frontrunner status and for playing one of Oscar&amp;#39;s favorite characters, the supportive, long-suffering wife. But honestly, it could go either way. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Watch for the Oscar nominations tomorrow, January 22. 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