In this week's New York Magazine, prediction guru Nate Silver made some oddball predictions, choosing mathematical calculations done on his computer instead of using common sense. We were baffled by one of his chooses, while he wisely stayed away from all of the categories in which the race is too close to call.
We are going to be a bit more courageous here and will take on the crazy Academy in the only way how: by thinking like an Academy voter, a person who doesn't see any of the nominated movies and just vote for whatever the hype machine tells them to. (Hint: This isn't Josh Brolin's year.)
Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire, easy. Nate Silver agrees. Will anyone even be tuned in at 4:30a.m. Monday when they finally get to this predictable category? They might've been, if this wasn't the worst and most uninspiring crop of best movie nominees since Titanic faced off against... what were those other ones again?
Best Director: Yawn. Gus Van Sant loses again.
Best Actress: Does Meryl Streep really need a third Oscar statue? Has anyone even heard that Doubt is any good, let alone seen it, loved it, and thought Meryl the best of this year's many great leads? Give it to Kate Winslet, for God's sake-- she's long overdue, especially for Heavenly Creatures, Sense and Sensibility, and that Poseidon Adventure remake-- no, no, the other one.
Best Actor: When you strip all the hype away, Sean Penn might've had the better performance in Milk. But you will lose the Oscar pool this year if you bet against Mickey Rourke...
Best Supporting Actress: Here's where Nate Silver cannot possibly be right. He calls it for Taraji P. Henson for Benjamin Button, in a role that might be described as "a one-dimensional stock African-American female overworked, 'oh Lawdy' character that went out with the Civil Rights era, and a hideously offensive caricature even in the 1930s, when this type first showed up on our screens."
Penélope Cruz, who won the BAFTA for her role in Vicky Cristina Barcelona, would seem the logical default. But computer sez: Benjamin Button’s Taraji P. Henson! Button,
which looks like a shutout everywhere else, is the only Best Picture
nominee with a Supporting Actress nod, and Best Pic nominees tend to
have an edge in the other categories.
That's not thinking like a racist (sorry, but it's true) Academy voter-- there are two black women nominated in this category and only has hype on her side: Viola Davis for Doubt. Meanwhile, Penelope has all the hype, buzz, momentum, whatever you want to call it. Oh, and she's famous-- that can't hurt.
Best Supporting Actor: Apparently, there's some guy named Heath Ledger nominated for one of those Hollywood action movies. The oracle says he may pull off an upset here...
And on to the really competitive categories, which Silver doesn't dwell on:
Best Documentary: Either the Academy didn't consider Waltz With Bashir a documentary or it thought the print was "too loud." That leaves Man on Wire and Encounters at the End of the World, plus longshot Trouble the Water, to duke it out while you head for a bathroom break. While we'd rather hear a long-overdue Werner Herzog acceptance speech (until now, he was the best director never nominated for an Oscar in any category), it looks like Philip Petite will walk a tightrope to the podium with the makers of the documentary about his high-wire act between the Twin Towers. While Man on Wire is a fascinating, even riveting film, it left many unanswered questions, like the typical suspense-thriller it's styled after. Encounters was a tighter, more focused, and ultimately more rewarding experience. Of course, there's something to be said for Trouble the Water, basically a home movie about Katrina that's taken the festival circuit by storm... but we're getting sidetracked.
Best Foreign Film: Waltz with Bashir. France dropped the ball on The Secret of the Grain (we're pretty sure it was in the running to be the country's official selection for the Oscars), choosing to promote the unfulfilling and pointless school drama The Class as its movie of the year. That officially doomed their chances of taking home a trophy-- Waltz will waltz home with the prize.
Here is Silver's original rundown, plus indieWire's superior list of predictions along with a "who should win" for each category that we agree with almost 100%.
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